NFL Divisional Playoff Round — Follow the QB

The terrible Jacksonville Jaguars and the awful New York Jets will draft one and two in this spring’s NFL draft. Both franchises hired new head coaches this week, taking vastly different approaches as they try to reverse their fortunes.

SportsAttic is taking this opportunity to go on record, saying Jets fans should hope that the upcoming draft plays out as well for their future as the recent head coaching decisions will for these two perennial bottom feeders.

The Jags went for the big splash with Urban Meyer, the revered college coach turned studio talking head. Their prized first pick was certainly a key data point (along with the tens of millions of dollars, of course) in Meyer accepting the J’ville job. It says here, though, that hiring Meyer will go down as the latest in a long string of disastrous moves that have made the Jags the laughingstocks of the league.

The Jets, on the other hand, opted for substance over splash (or inexplicable head-scratcher, the Jets’ other go-to move when bringing in a new coach), tapping former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to become the latest man tasked with turning around the hapless Airplanes. The diehard Niners fans in the SportsAttic network are hailing Saleh as an outstanding selection, so those of us who continue to root on Gang Green will mark this hire as a potential sea change moment for the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS here in January of 2021.

What we are really trying to underscore, though, is that the NFL is now, more than ever, a Quarterback League. The QB position figured prominently in both Jacksonville’s and New York’s coaching hires, with the Jags expected to draft can’t-miss QB Trevor Lawrence of Clemson with the first pick in the draft. Meanwhile the Jets decide between remaining committed to Sam Darnold (aka “Poor Sam”) or starting anew with Justin Fields or one of the other college signal-callers lumped into the “not-Trevor Lawrence” category.

SportsAttic Aside: How about sending Darnold and that number two pick to Houston for disgruntled QB Deshaun Watson? Anyone? Anyone?

If one agrees with the premise that in the NFL you live and die by your QB, then you only need to go as far as that statement to get a glimpse into the crystal ball that will bring you the winners of this weekend’s four matchups. And we can thank the Jags and Jets for reminding us of this fundamental truth with their respective coaching hires earlier this week.

(And one more time for good measure — it says here Meyer will go down as a colossal fail, while Saleh’s hire will be hailed as the second greatest moment in Jets history when this story is finished being written.)

So following SportsAttic’s 5-1 opening foray into NFL Playoff prognostication a week ago (okay, we were 3-3 against the spread, but come on already, the Saints and Bucs were barely trying), we return even more confidently this week, with our sure-fire bets to fill out your Conference Championship brackets (home team in ALL CAPS as always):

PACKERS (-6.5) over the Rams — So who ya got, Aaron Rodgers or Jared Goff? Yeah, we could probably stop this one right there. It was a feel good win for the Rams over Seattle a week ago, but the party comes to an end as the Rams head east to the frozen tundra. It seems unlikely that Goff will get anything going offensively for the Rams, even though we aren’t believers in the Green Bay defense either. And as good as the Rams D has been, Aaron Rodgers has been on a different plane than the mere mortals this year, posting the second-highest QB rating (121.5) of all-time (Rodgers also owns the top mark, an astounding 122.5 back in his MVP year of 2011). Look for Aaron Donald and the Rams front to keep things close for a half, but unless Rodgers throws up a couple pick-sixes, it won’t stay that way. Green Bay will host the NFC Championship Game next Sunday at Lambeau. (Packers, 30-13).

Ravens (+3) over the BILLS — If you play the “who ya got” game at the QB position in this one, you may as well flip a coin. Both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are dynamic, dual-threat QB’s who come into the game playing outstanding football. So if you subscribe to the theory that the two QB’s will offset one another, look to the ground games for the difference in this one. The Ravens (SportsAttic’s pick to win Super Bowl LV) will control both the line of scrimmage and the clock in this one, pounding away with Jackson and backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. The Bills are vulnerable to the run on defense, and will be facing an opposing D with cornerbacks capable of slowing down Buffalo’s superstar wideout, Stefon Diggs. This is the game of the weekend, and may come down to the final possession. In the end, Jackson comes through again in what could become an annual playoff face-off for the two young QB’s. (Ravens, 24-23).

CHIEFS (-10) over the Browns — Let’s see, if we were starting a team from scratch today, who would be our first pick? No, not Baker Mayfield. Maybe the guy calling signals across the field from Mayfield on Sunday? Yeah, probably that guy. This is an awfully fat spread for a divisional playoff game, particularly when you factor in just how good the Browns looked last week in ridding us of the vastly overrated Steelers. But these are the defending champs from Kansas City we are talking about, and Patrick Mahomes and his cadre of offensive weapons will come out rested and firing. No coasting once up a couple of early TD’s for the Chiefs this week, and when the talent differential becomes evident, look for Cleveland to quit. This one could get ugly. (Chiefs, 44-20).

Bucs (+3) over the SAINTS — In January of 1990, 41-year-old George Foreman fought 33-year-old Gerry Cooney in a matchup the publicity folks dubbed “The Preacher versus The Puncher.” Skeptics in the boxing world quickly renamed the bout “The Geezers at Caesars.”* And yes, you know where I’m going with this. For Sunday’s late game we get 42-year-old Drew Brees leading his Saints at home against 43-year-old Tom Brady and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers (that still doesn’t sound right, does it). If we are going to continue riding superiority at the QB position to our expected outcome, this one is nearly as much of a tossup as Allen versus Jackson. Too bad the NFL couldn’t deliver this game to us a few years ago, when Brady and Brees would still have been geezers, but geezers capable of putting a team on their back and carrying them to a win. Sadly, neither of these future Hall of Famers possess that kind of skill any longer, but it feels like Brees has fallen further faster than Brady. Couple that with the fact that the Saints have already waxed the Bucs twice this season, and we will go contrarian and say it can’t happen a third time. This should be an entertaining game loaded with star power, and the significance of a playoff matchup between these legendary quarterbacks (geezers or no) should be lost on no one. Look for a close one in the fourth quarter, but in the end Tommy lives to fight another week. (Bucs, 30-26).

And there you have your NFL Final Four, folks. Enjoy thinking about the QB battles that loom on next week’s horizon after Jackson, Mahomes, Brady and Rodgers advance to the Conference Finals.

Can’t wait.

*Foreman won that fight, knocking out Cooney in the second round. At the time the fight was viewed by most as a money-grab, with Big George and Cooney cashing in on name recognition. However, nearly five years later, Foreman reclaimed the heavyweight title two months shy of his 46th birthday, knocking out undefeated, 27-year-old Michael Moorer. Score one for the geezers.

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